China's Vulnerability

A lot of social grievance has been built up and suppressed in China. A small shake-up can spark social unrest. Shake-up may come in the form of an economic adjustment, or even worse, global recession.

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Grievance accumulated

The Chinese society has accumulated a lot of grievance. What have contributed to the build-up of grievance? Corruption and economic inequality may have played a part.

The authority chooses to suppress adverse opinions. Unfortunately, suppression only helps to build the pressure up. It is difficult to estimate the capacity of the grievance-container in China. One would assume that it has a limit.

In a grievance-charged society, a small event can spark off serious social unrest. This is demonstrated by the social unrest triggered by the arrest of Zhao Lianhai(activist for parents of children harmed during the 2008 Chinese milk scandal) and Liu Xiaobo (Nobel Prize winner 2011).

Economic adjustment inevitable

The West is facing economic adjustments. Adjustments happen from time to time. In fact, the situation could be worse: the West could go into recession. When this happens, China will lose markets to export to. This will lead to unemployment in China (which internal market is relatively small compared to its GDP).

Unemployment will start riots, which consequences are unpredictable.

Things that do not help

The society is target-driven and often superficial. It lacks depth. The economy is also over-heated.

Most infrastructure are built to meet targets. Any quality that is not specified as targets is ignored. For example, there are buildings and roads, but little development in drainage. A heavy rain will paralyse traffic. A small deviation in operation led to a fatal train crash in Wenzhou in July.

Solutions are in the hands of the leaders

To handle the situation, China needs powerful, united leaders. They must have vision. They have already attempted to cool down the economy for years. This is a formidable task, given the "can't-fail" metality by the investors. The leaders need to give people channels to release their grievance, in an orderly manner. This operation, should they decide to take it, is very delicate, as one step wrong could trigger riot.

The Primier Wen Jiabao seems to be a sensible man. He talked to individuals in the public, which shows his confidence. How much can he do?

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